The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA. If the Hawks finish last—and FiveThirtyEight.com’s most recent projection says they will—they’ll have the best odds to win the No. 1 pick and would be no worse than fourth in the order. The Hawks also own the rights to first-round picks from the Timberwolves and Rockets if those teams make the playoffs—and right now FiveThirry Eight gives those teams an 85 percent and 99-plus percent chance, respectively, of doing so.
Here’s a rundown of from some recent mock drafts to see which players experts predict the Hawks will select.
No. 4: Michael Porter Jr., 6-11, SF/PF, Missouri
Comment: “Michael Porter’s ability to create offense and make shots from the perimeter will be attractive for a team that often struggles to score. His fit alongside promising youngsters John Collins and Taurean Prince is intriguing as well.”
No. 21 (via Timberwolves): Shake Milton, 6-7, PG/SG, SMU
Comment: “With the second of their three first-round picks, the Hawks might look to add some backcourt depth, specifically someone who can play behind or alongside incumbent starters Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore.”
No. 29 (via Rockets): Tyus Battle, SG/SF, Syracuse
“Battle looks the part physically and has shown potential as a scorer from different parts of the floor thus far in his college career.”
No. 2: Marvin Bagley III, 6-11, PF, Duke
Notes: Analyst Evan Tomes lists Chris Bosh as Bagley’s NBA comparison and among his strengths cites size, athleticism and “tremendous coordination and fluidity.” Tomes says Bagley’s weaknesses include ball handling, decision-making and leadership.
No. 23 (via Timberwolves): Bruno Fernando, 6-10, PF, Maryland
No. 29 (via Rockets): Rodions Kurucs, 6-9, SF, FC Barcelona
No. 1: Luka Doncic, G/F, 6-8, Real Madrid
No. 22: (via Timberwolves): Jalen Hudson, 6-5, SG, Florida
No. 30: (via Rockets): Bonzie Colson, 6-6, PF, Notre Dame
No. 4: Michael Porter Jr., 6-10, SF, Missouri
Comment: “Back injuries in near-seven-footers are worrisome, which is the reason — the only reason, really — Porter should no longer be considered in contention for the No. 1 pick. And that’s only because the three people ahead of him feel like such locks as NBA players. But Porter’s game is exquisite. Imagine if you could take the collegiate Jayson Tatum and make him a little bit better at everything: a little bit taller, a little bit bigger, a little bit better shooter and a little bit better athlete. If the back is 100 percent going forward, Porter has one of the highest ceilings in this draft, if not the highest ceiling of them all.
No. 18 (via Timberwolves): Brandon McCoy, 6-11, C, UNLV
Comment: “He is a big, broad center who can do all the things you want from a traditional center — block shots, rebound, score in the post — and is attempting to develop range on his shot as well as a more mature offensive skill set. If he develops his offensive game, that could turn the still-raw McCoy into a steal at this point in the draft.”
No. 28 (via Rockets): Allonzo Trier, 6-5, SG, Arizona
Comment: “An elite scorer — but what else? Trier could use a lot more unselfishness to his game, because an NBA team isn’t going to draft him here to be The Guy. He needs to learn how to become a role player, which is what he would be in the NBA — someone who could provide a scoring spark off the bench.”
No. 1: Marvin Bagley III, 6-11, PF, Duke
No. 22 (via Timberwolves): Mitchell Robinson, 7-0, C, Chalmette (La.) High
No. 30 (via Rockets): P.J. Washington, 6-8, PF, Kentucky
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